eprintid: 4501
rev_number: 20
eprint_status: archive
userid: 351
dir: disk0/00/00/45/01
datestamp: 2016-01-15 02:05:59
lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:15:14
status_changed: 2016-01-15 02:05:59
type: monograph
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 2
creators_name: Holmberg, J.
title: A Decision Model for the Risk Management of Hazardous Processes
ispublished: pub
internal_subjects: iis_mod
internal_subjects: iis_nuc
internal_subjects: iis_rsk
divisions: prog_rpc
divisions: prog_ysp
abstract: We formulate a decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes as an optimization problem of a point process. The essential features of the model are: long-term (process lifetime) objective function which is a risk-averse utility function, a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision-maker and a long-term control variable guiding the selection of optimal solutions for short-term problems. 

The model is demonstrated by a case study of a hazardous process with reparable safety systems, such as a nuclear power plant. The short-term decision problem of the case study is whether it is sometimes beneficial to temporarily shut the process down in order to cut, off the high risk periods. The long-term decision problem is to optimize a long-term control variable that determines which decision alternative is preferred in a case of increased risk in the process: (1) to shut the process down during the repair time or (2) to continue the operation. Several long-term strategies are analysed and compared. As a solution approach for the optimization problem, we use the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure.
date: 1995-09
date_type: published
publisher: WP-95-095
iiasapubid: WP-95-095
price: 10
full_text_status: public
monograph_type: working_paper
place_of_pub: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
pages: 31
coversheets_dirty: FALSE
fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
citation:   Holmberg, J.  (1995).  A Decision Model for the Risk Management of Hazardous Processes.   IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-95-095     
document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4501/1/WP-95-095.pdf