?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4502%2F&rft.title=A+Stochastic+Version+of+the+Dynamic+Linear+Programming+Model+MESSAGE+III&rft.creator=Golodnikov%2C+A.&rft.creator=Gritsevskii%2C+A.&rft.creator=Messner%2C+S.&rft.description=The+ECS+Project+at+IIASA+is+using+a+dynamic+linear+programming+model%2C+MESSAGE+III%2C+for+the+analysis+of+long-term+energy+strategies+to+mitigate+climate+change.+These+model+analyses+utilize+information+on+potential+future+technology+characteristics%2C+energy+services+demands+and+resource+availability+to+investigate+paths+into+a+sustainable+future+energy+system+during+the+next+century.+%0D%0A%0D%0AOne+major+shortcoming+of+conventional+energy+optimization+models+is+the+requirement+to+use+point+estimates+for+the+technology+characteristics+and+other+important+system+parameters.+This+paper+introduces+a+new+approach+to+overcome+this+problem+by+introducing+distribution+functions+for+technology+parameters+into+model+formulation.+The+stochastic+version+of+MESSAGE+captures+the+risk+of+underestimating+future+technology+costs.+Computational+overhead+for+applying+the+approach+is+very+low+compared+to+the+original+model%3B+for+the+runs+investigated+here%2C+no+increase+in+CPU+time+was+detected.+%0D%0A%0D%0AAnother+problem+often+encountered+with+deterministic+models%2C+in+particular+linear+programming+models%2C+is+their+sensitivity+to+input+parameters.+Linear+programming+models+are%2C+by+definition%2C+worst+in+this+respect+because+they+tend+to+favor+single+solutions+and+extreme+developments+instead+of+mixing+various+technologies+or+strategies.+In+such+cases+modelers+develop+robust+scenarios+by+parameter+variations+and+delimiting+the+solution+space+to+the+area+that+yields+acceptable+and+robust+results.+Clearly%2C+this+approach+is+rather+labor+intensive+and+requires+experience+on+the+modeler's+side.+The+important+parameters+for+variation+have+to+be+found%2C+and+model+runs+with+combinations+of+such+parameter+variations+have+to+be+performed.+Such+investigations+can+result+in+a+large+number+of+model+runs+or%2C+more+probably%2C+in+model+outcomes+that+are+not+robust+with+respect+to+small+changes+in+model+parameters.+In+any+case+additional+constraints+introduced+to+stabilize+model+results+reflect+experts+expectations%2C+which+are+always+subjective+to+a+certain+degree%2C+representing+a+certain+risk+of+over-+or+underestimating+the+parameters.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+stochastic+approach+presented+here+helps+to+overcome+these+problems+by+explicitly+introducing+the+uncertainties+concerning+expert's+opinions+of+future+investment+costs+of+technologies.+The+data+used+for+the+distribution+function+of+investment+costs+were+derived+from+the+greenhouse+gas+mitigation+technology+inventory%2C+called+C02DB%2C+developed+by+ECS+over+the+last+five+years.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+strategies+derived+with+the+stochastic+approach+possess+the+required+technological+diversity+without+exogenous+flexibility+constraints.+They+also+have+a+more+robust+structure+with+respect+to+present+uncertainties+concerning+future+parameters.+Thirdly%2C+the+strategies+derived+with+the+stochastic+model+extension+are+less+costly+than+strategies+obtained+on+the+basis+of+a+purely+deterministic+model.&rft.publisher=WP-95-094&rft.date=1995-09&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4502%2F1%2FWP-95-094.pdf&rft.identifier=++Golodnikov%2C+A.%2C+Gritsevskii%2C+A.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2611.html%3E%2C+%26+Messner%2C+S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1449.html%3E++(1995).++A+Stochastic+Version+of+the+Dynamic+Linear+Programming+Model+MESSAGE+III.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-95-094+++++