?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4520%2F&rft.title=History%2C+Co-Evolution+and+Economic+Growth&rft.creator=Freeman%2C+C.&rft.description=This+paper+attempts+to+present+a+theory+of+economic+growth.+In+Section+I+it+discusses+the+experience+of+growth+modelling+over+the+past+40+years+and+argues+that+it+fails+to+capture+the+most+important+features+of+institutional+and+technical+change.+Nevertheless+as+a+method+for+ordering+concepts+it+can+be+a+useful+complement+to+historical+research.+The+problem+with+history+is+the+almost+infinite+multitude+of+events%2C+which+have+to+be+classified%2C+described+and+analysed.+A+simplifying+theoretical+framework+is+essential+and+inevitable.+%0D%0A%0D%0ASection+II+tentatively+presents+such+a+simplifying+classificatory+framework.+It+argues+that+five+historical+processes+or+sub-systems+of+society+have+been+shown+by+historical+research+to+be+relatively+autonomous+although+interacting+major+influences+on+the+process+of+economic+growth.+These+five+overlapping+sub-systems+are+science%2C+technology%2C+economy%2C+politics+and+general+culture.+Each+of+these+is+briefly+defined.+Humans+share+with+other+animals+the+natural+environment+which+can+also+powerfully+and+reciprocally+influence+economic+growth.+The+other+five+historical+processes+each+have+their+own+partly+autonomous+%22selection+environment%22+and+are+uniquely+human%2C+which+is+one+reason+why+biological+evolutionary+analogies+have+limited+value.+Although+each+of+the+five+has+its+own+distinctive+features+and+relative+autonomy%2C+it+is+their+interdependence+and+interaction+which+provides+major+insights+into+the+processes+of+%22forging+ahead%22%2C+%22catching+up%22+and+%22falling+behind%22+in+economic+growth.+Positive+congruence+and+interaction+between+them+provides+the+most+fertile+soil+for+growth%2C+while+lack+of+congruence+may+prevent+growth+altogether%2C+or+slow+it+down.+%0D%0A%0D%0AAlthough+a+satisfactory+theory+of+economic+growth+should+help+us+to+understand+the+evolution+of+the+world+economy+much+better%2C+the+limits+of+forecasting+and+prediction+in+the+social+sciences+should+be+clearly+recognised.+Popper+was+surely+right+in+maintaining+that+the+most+important+historical+changes+are+qualitative+and+non-repetitive.+The+fact+that+we+can+predict+eclipses+does+not+mean+that+we+can+predict+revolutions.+Section+III+discusses+the+problem+of+non-recurrence+for+the+social+sciences.+%0D%0A%0D%0ASection+IV+takes+a+major+example+to+illustrate+the+theory+which+has+been+tentatively+advanced+--+the+archetypal+example+of+forging+ahead+in+the+British+Industrial+Revolution+in+the+late+18th+Century.+It+briefly+discusses+a+dozen+or+so+major+features+of+this+revolution+as+identified+by+historians+and+suggests+that+together+they+justify+the+notions+of+confluence+and+congruence+between+science%2C+technology%2C+economy%2C+politics+and+culture+as+a+plausible+explanation+of+the+leap+ahead+in+economic+growth+then+achieved+for+the+first+time+in+world+history.+%0D%0A%0D%0ASection+V+then+discusses+British+%22falling+behind%22+in+the+late+19th+Century+and+20th+Century+and+suggests+that+this+can+probably+be+explained+in+terms+of+loss+of+congruence+between+the+five+sub-systems+of+British+society.+The+rise+of+new+increasingly+science-based+technologies+and+of+specialised+professional+management+in+large+corporations+fitted+ill+with+some+of+the+older+now+%22traditional%22+British+political+and+social+institutions.+%0D%0A%0D%0AAfter+a+brief+discussion+of+the+more+deliberate+processes+of+%22catching+up%22+the+paper+concludes+by+pointing+out+that+the+theory+put+forward+here+resembles+many+earlier+explanations+of+economic+growth.+Marx's+materialist+conception+of+history+stressed+the+tensions+between+%22forces+of+production%22%2C+%22relations+of+production%22+and+%22superstructure%22+as+a+source+of+social+and+political+change+or+of+stagnation+in+economic+growth.+Many+other+historians+and+economists+(e.g.+Veblen%2C+Mokyr%2C+von+Tunzelmann%2C+Galbraith%2C+Perez)+have+stressed+in+particular+the+inter-action+between+technical+change+and+organisational+change+within+firms%2C+as+well+as+political+and+institutional+change+at+other+levels+in+society.+This+paper+differs+from+most+of+them+and+from+Marx's+theory+in+two+respects.+First%2C+it+attaches+greater+importance+to+science+and+to+general+culture.+In+this+it+resembles+the+theories+of+Needham+and+Bernal.+Secondly%2C+it+does+not+attempt+to+assign+primacy+in+causal+relationships+to+any+one+of+the+five+spheres%2C+whereas+most+other+theories+assign+primacy+to+technology+or+the+economy+or+both.+It+emphasises+rather+the+relative+autonomy+of+each+of+the+five+spheres%2C+based+on+the+division+of+labour+and+each+with+its+own+selection+environment.+It+is+this+co-evolution+which+generates+the+possibility+of+mis-match+between+them+and+periodically+of+radical+institutional+innovations+which+attempt+to+restore+harmonious+development.+Such+harmony+however+is+not+necessarily+favourable+to+economic+growth%2C+which+is+not+the+only+objective+pursued+by+human+beings.+%22Congruence%22+which+is+favourable+to+economic+growth+must+be+distinguished+from+other+types+of+congruence.&rft.publisher=WP-95-076&rft.date=1995-09&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4520%2F1%2FWP-95-076.pdf&rft.identifier=++Freeman%2C+C.++(1995).++History%2C+Co-Evolution+and+Economic+Growth.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-95-076+++++