?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4522%2F&rft.title=Nonlinear+Stochastic+Models+for+Water+Level+Dynamics+in+Closed+Lakes&rft.creator=Mishchenko%2C+A.S.&rft.creator=Zelikin%2C+M.I.&rft.creator=Zelikina%2C+L.F.&rft.description=This+paper+presents+the+results+of+investigation+of+nonlinear+mathematical+models+of+the+behavior+of+closed+lakes+using+the+example+of+the+Caspian+Sea.+%0D%0A%0D%0AForecasting+the+level+of+the+Caspian+Sea+is+crucial+both+for+the+economy+of+the+region+and+for+the+region's+environment.+The+Caspian+Sea+is+a+closed+reservoir%3B+it+is+well+known+that+its+level+changes+considerably+due+to+a+variety+of+factors+including+global+climate+change.+A+series+of+forecasts+exists+based+on+different+methods+and+taking+into+account+some+of+the+following+factors%3A+the+influence+of+the+sun's+activity%3B+the+atmospheric+circulation%3B+the+changing+shape+of+the+world's+ocean%3B+geological+phenomena%3B+the+river+inflow%3B+and+the+velocity+of+evaporation.+All+of+these+models+were+calculated+based+on+the+linearization+of+the+relations+considered.+%0D%0A%0D%0AFor+the+last+two+decades%2C+the+most+popular+model+has+been+the+linear+stochastic+equation+of+water+balance.+This+model+was+used+as+the+base+of+the+well+known+project+of+reversing+the+flow+of+the+northward-flowing+rivers.+But+the+real+behavior+of+the+Caspian+Sea+contradicted+the+forecasting+done+using+this+model.+One+of+the+reasons+of+the+failure+was+ignorance+of+the+relations+mentioned+above.+We+are+inclined+to+think+however+that+the+main+reason+for+failure+was+that+the+forecast+used+a+linear+equation.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+goal+of+the+present+paper+is+to+analyze+and+generalize%2C+from+the+modern+mathematical+point+of+view%2C+the+forecasting+methodology+for+the+level+of+the+Caspian+Sea%2C+including+the+nonlinear+effects+crucial+influence+on+the+dynamics+of+sea+level.+In+particular%2C+the+mathematical+problems+concerning+the+nonlinear+stochastic+equations+are+considered.&rft.publisher=WP-95-074&rft.date=1995-07&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4522%2F1%2FWP-95-074.pdf&rft.identifier=++Mishchenko%2C+A.S.%2C+Zelikin%2C+M.I.%2C+%26+Zelikina%2C+L.F.++(1995).++Nonlinear+Stochastic+Models+for+Water+Level+Dynamics+in+Closed+Lakes.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-95-074+++++