?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4536%2F&rft.title=Scenario+Analysis+in+Population+Projection&rft.creator=Lutz%2C+W.&rft.description=This+paper+focuses+on+the+approach+to+population+projections+that+has+been+labeled+scenario+analysis.+It+looks+at+the+original+meaning+of+%22scenario%22+and+then+discusses+its+appropriate+usage+in+population+projections+with+respect+to+several+criteria%2C+especially+that+of+consistency+of+assumptions.+%0D%0A%0D%0ANext%2C+the+paper+describes+the+practical+considerations+and+actual+experiences+in+an+IIASA+effort+to+define+alternative+scenarios+for+12+world+regions+to+the+year+2030+through+discussions+of+a+group+of+experts.+Because+of+differential+expertise+and+an+uneasiness+of+experts+to+numerically+define+alternative+scenarios%2C+an+interactive+group+process+was+chosen+rather+than+a+larger+Delphi.+On+practical+and+theoretical+grounds+it+became+apparent+that+individual+responsibility+and+judgement+of+the+authors+cannot+be+replaced+by+an+anonymous+%22objective%22+entity+making+the+assumptions.+%0D%0A%0D%0AFinally%2C+the+paper+discusses+what+kind+of+alternative+variants+(or+scenarios)+the+users+can+handle+and+do+expect.+It+is+exemplified+through+the+specific+question+whether+the+UN+should+change+its+current+practice+of+making+population+projections.+Pro+and+contra+arguments+are+listed+concerning+the+proposal+to+include+alternative+mortality+assumptions+into+the+three+main+variants+that+are+widely+publicized.&rft.publisher=WP-95-057&rft.date=1995-06&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4536%2F1%2FWP-95-057.pdf&rft.identifier=++Lutz%2C+W.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F190.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145%3E++(1995).++Scenario+Analysis+in+Population+Projection.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-95-057+++++