?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4581%2F&rft.title=A+Belief+Network+Approach+to+Optimization+and+Parameter+Estimation+in+Resource+and+Environmental+Management+Models&rft.creator=Varis%2C+O.&rft.description=This+study+presents+an+approach+to+use+Bayesian+belief+networks+in+various+optimization+tasks+in+resource+and+environmental+management.+A+belief+network+is+constructed+to+work+parallel+to+a+deterministic+model%2C+and+it+is+used+to+update+conditional+probabilities+associated+with+different+components+of+the+model.+The+propagation+of+probabilistic+information+occurs+in+two+directions+in+the+network.+The+divergence+between+prior+and+posterior+probability+distributions+at+model+components+can+be+used+as+indication+on+inconsistency+between+model+structure%2C+parameter+values%2C+and+other+information+used.+An+iteration+scheme+was+developed+to+force+prior+and+posterior+distributions+to+become+equal.+This+removes+inconsistencies+between+different+sources+of+information.+The+scheme+can+be+used+in+different+optimization+tasks+including+parameter+estimation+and+optimization+between+various+management+alternatives.+Also+multiobjective+optimization+is+possible.+The+approach+is+illustrated+with+two+numerical+examples+and+with+a+hypothetical+example+on+cost-effective+management+of+river+water+quality.&rft.publisher=WP-95-011&rft.date=1995-02&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4581%2F1%2FWP-95-011.pdf&rft.identifier=++Varis%2C+O.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2475.html%3E++(1995).++A+Belief+Network+Approach+to+Optimization+and+Parameter+Estimation+in+Resource+and+Environmental+Management+Models.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-95-011+++++