IIASA RepositoryDecarbonizing the Global Energy SystemA.GrublerauthorN.NakicenovicauthorThe study analyzes the long-term decarbonization of the global energy system, i.e., the decrease of the carbon emissions per unit of primary energy. Decarbonization appears as a continuous and persistent trend throughout the world, albeit occurring at very slow rates of approximately 0.3% per year. The study also discusses the driving forces of the associated structural changes in energy systems, such as technological change. Decarbonization also occurs at end use, and trends for final energy are shown. The quest by consumers for higher flexibility, convenience, and cleanliness of energy services leads to decarbonization trends in final energy that are more pronounced than those of the upstream energy sector. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications for long-term scenarios of energy-environment interactions, suggesting that decarbonization and its driving forces may still be insufficiently captured by most models and scenarios of the energy system's long-term evolution.1996RR-97-006. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1):97-110 [September 1996].Monograph

For work being deposited by its own author: In self-archiving this collection of files and associated bibliographic metadata, I grant IIASA Repository the right to store them and to make them permanently available publicly for free on-line. I declare that this material is my own intellectual property and I understand that IIASA Repository does not assume any responsibility if there is any breach of copyright in distributing these files or metadata. (All authors are urged to prominently assert their copyright on the title page of their work.)

For work being deposited by someone other than its author: I hereby declare that the collection of files and associated bibliographic metadata that I am archiving at IIASA Repository) is in the public domain. If this is not the case, I accept full responsibility for any breach of copyright that distributing these files or metadata may entail.

Clicking on the deposit button indicates your agreement to these terms.