?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4851%2F&rft.title=Time+for+a+Change%3A+On+the+Patterns+of+Diffusion+of+Innovation&rft.creator=Grubler%2C+A.&rft.description=The+report+presents+an+empirical+examination+of+the+diffusion+processes+of+innovation.+Temporal+patterns+of+the+diffusion+of+technological+innovations%2C+and+the+implications+of+these+patterns+may+have+for+the+future+of+the+human+environment%2C+are+considered.+Diffusion+patterns+of+technologies+follow+a+non-linear%2C+S-shaped+time+path%2C+which+does+not+vary+across+time+or+cultures.+The+concepts+of+invention+and+innovation+are+also+considered+in+conjunction+with+diffusion+patterns.+Diffusion+is+a+process+of+imitation+and+homogenization%2C+but+with+clusters+and+lumps.+These+discontinuities+may+be+considered+as+inherent+features+of+the+evolutionary+process+that+governs+social+behavior.+Technology+clusters+have+historically+been+instrumental+in+alleviating+many+adverse+environmental+effects%2C+and+the+emergence+of+a+new+cluster+could+hold+the+promise+of+an+environmentally+more+compatible+technological+trajectory.+However%2C+this+process+takes+time%2C+and+rates+of+change+normally+range+from+several+decades+to+a+century.+Appropriate+incentives+and+policies+may+encourage+the+development+of+more+benign+technologies+and+their+diffusion+over+a+shorter+or+longer+period+of+time%2C+this+time+factor+being+contingent+upon+many+variables.&rft.publisher=RR-97-003.+Reprinted+from+Daedelus%2C+125(3)%3A19-42+%5B1996%5D.&rft.date=1996&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=PeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4851%2F1%2FRR-97-03.pdf&rft.identifier=++Grubler%2C+A.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F112.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-7814-4990+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-7814-4990%3E++(1996).++Time+for+a+Change%3A+On+the+Patterns+of+Diffusion+of+Innovation.+++IIASA+Research+Report+(Reprint).+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+RR-97-003.+Reprinted+from+Daedelus%2C+125(3)%3A19-42+%5B1996%5D.+++++