?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4858%2F&rft.title=Human+Population+Dynamics+Revisited+with+the+Logistic+Model%3A+How+Much+Can+Be+Modeled+and+Predicted%3F&rft.creator=Marchetti%2C+C.&rft.creator=Meyer%2C+P.S.&rft.creator=Ausubel%2C+J.H.&rft.description=Decrease+or+growth+of+population+comes+from+the+interplay+of+death+and+birth++(and+locally%2C+migration).+We+revive+the+logistic+model%2C+which+was+tested+and+found+wanting+in+early-20th-century+studies+of+aggregate+human+populations%2C+and+apply+it+instead+to+life+expectancy+(death)+and+fertility+(birth).++For+death%2C+once+an+individual+has+legally+entered+society%2C+the+logistic+model+portrays+the+situation+crisply.+Human+life+expectancy+is+reaching+the+culmination+of+a+200-year+process+that+forestalls+death+until+about+80+for+men+and+the+mid-80s+for+women.+No+breakthroughs+in+longevity+are+in+sight+unless+genetic+engineering+comes+to+help.+For+birth%2C+the+logistic+model+covers+quantitatively+its+actual+morphology.+However%2C+because+we+have+not+been+able+to+model+this+essential+parameter+in+a+predictive+way+over+long+periods%2C+we+cannot+say+whether+the+future+of+human+demographics+is+runaway+growth+or+slow+implosion.+Thus%2C+we+revisit+the+logistic+analysis+of+aggregate+human+numbers.&rft.publisher=RR-96-014.+Reprinted+from+Technological+Forecasting+and+Social+Change%2C+52%3A1-30+%5B1996%5D.&rft.date=1996&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=PeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.rights=cc_by&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4858%2F1%2FRR-96-14.pdf&rft.identifier=++Marchetti%2C+C.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F195.html%3E%2C+Meyer%2C+P.S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1451.html%3E%2C+%26+Ausubel%2C+J.H.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1698.html%3E++(1996).++Human+Population+Dynamics+Revisited+with+the+Logistic+Model%3A+How+Much+Can+Be+Modeled+and+Predicted%3F+++IIASA+Research+Report+(Reprint).+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+RR-96-014.+Reprinted+from+Technological+Forecasting+and+Social+Change%2C+52%3A1-30+%5B1996%5D.+++++