eprintid: 4858 rev_number: 13 eprint_status: archive userid: 351 dir: disk0/00/00/48/58 datestamp: 2016-01-15 02:07:27 lastmod: 2021-08-27 17:15:34 status_changed: 2016-01-15 02:07:27 type: monograph metadata_visibility: show item_issues_count: 2 creators_name: Marchetti, C. creators_name: Meyer, P.S. creators_name: Ausubel, J.H. creators_id: 1619 creators_id: 7451 creators_id: AL0460 title: Human Population Dynamics Revisited with the Logistic Model: How Much Can Be Modeled and Predicted? ispublished: pub internal_subjects: iis_mod internal_subjects: iis_pop divisions: prog_ins abstract: Decrease or growth of population comes from the interplay of death and birth (and locally, migration). We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth). For death, once an individual has legally entered society, the logistic model portrays the situation crisply. Human life expectancy is reaching the culmination of a 200-year process that forestalls death until about 80 for men and the mid-80s for women. No breakthroughs in longevity are in sight unless genetic engineering comes to help. For birth, the logistic model covers quantitatively its actual morphology. However, because we have not been able to model this essential parameter in a predictive way over long periods, we cannot say whether the future of human demographics is runaway growth or slow implosion. Thus, we revisit the logistic analysis of aggregate human numbers. date: 1996 date_type: published publisher: RR-96-014. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 52:1-30 [1996]. iiasapubid: RP-96-014 iiasa_bibref: Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 52:1-30 [1996] price: 10 creators_browse_id: 195 creators_browse_id: 1451 creators_browse_id: 1698 full_text_status: public monograph_type: research_reprint publication: Technological Forecasting and Social Change volume: 52 place_of_pub: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria pagerange: 1-30 pages: 34 refereed: TRUE coversheets_dirty: FALSE fp7_type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book citation: Marchetti, C. , Meyer, P.S. , & Ausubel, J.H. (1996). Human Population Dynamics Revisited with the Logistic Model: How Much Can Be Modeled and Predicted? IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-96-014. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 52:1-30 [1996]. document_url: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4858/1/RR-96-14.pdf