IIASA RepositoryPopulation Momentum and the Demand on Land and Water ResourcesG.FischerauthorG.K.HeiligauthorFuture world population growth is fueled by two components: a) the demographic momentum, which is built into the age composition of current populations, and b) changes in reproductive behavior and mortality of generations yet to come. This paper investigates by major world regions what we know about population growth, what can be projected with reasonable certainty, and what is pure speculation. The exposition sets a frame for analyzing demographic driving forces that are expected to increase human demand and pressures on land and water resources. These will be contrasted with current resource assessments of regional availability and use of land, in particular with estimates of remaining land with cultivation potential. In establishing a balance between availability of land resources and projected needs, the paper will distinguish regions with limited land and water resources and high population pressure from areas with abundant resources and low or moderate demographic demand.1996-12WP-96-149Monograph

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