?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4885%2F&rft.title=Assessment+of+Long+Term+Impacts+of+Cadmium+and+Lead+Load+to+Agricultural+Soils+in+the+Upper+Elbe+and+Oder+River+Basins&rft.creator=Prieler%2C+S.&rft.creator=Anderberg%2C+S.&rft.description=This+report+investigates+effects+of+long+term+load+of+two+heavy+metals%2C+cadmium+and+lead+to+agricultural+soils+for+a+project+area+in+Central+Europe.+The+time+frame+for+the+historic+analysis+is+1955+to+1994.+The+major+source+of+lead+is+atmospheric+deposition.+In+the+case+of+cadmium%2C+besides+atmospheric+deposition%2C+agricultural+activities%2C+such+as+P-fertilizer+and+manuring%2C+are+additional+sources+of+heavy+metal+input+to+agricultural+soils.+Extremely+high+depositions+that+were+measured+in+a+%22hot+spot%22+region+in+the+project+area+are+included+in+the+analysis.+A+soil+model+is+used+to+perform+a+quantitative+analysis+of+potential+accumulation+or+release+of+cumulative+heavy+metal+loads.+A+GIS+database+enables+us+to+undertake+a+regional+analysis.+Potential+future+risks+are+addressed+in+a+scenario+approach+covering+the+time+frame+1995+to+2050.+%0D%0A%0D%0AFor+the+majority+of+the+project+area+there+was+no+significant+increase+in+cadmium+and+particularly+lead+soil+concentration+compared+to+background+values+and+guidelines.+The+parts+of+the+project+area+which+had+the+highest+cumulative+cadmium+deposition+historic+cadmium+accumulation+may+be+of+concern.+However+these+assessments+related+to+long+term+suitability+for+agricultural+food+production+depend+on+environmental+criteria+and+the+time+frames+taken+into+account.+Locally%2C+in+hot+spot+areas%2C+atmospheric+deposition+were+and+still+are+much+higher+and+soil+guideline+values+may+be+exceeded+within+10+to+50+years.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+cadmium+mass+balance+for+the+project+area+covering+the+period+1955+to+1994+suggests+that+from+the+cumulative+load+of+3062t+of+cadmium+(about+two+thirds+from+atmospheric+deposition+and+one+third+from+agricultural+sources)%2C+one+third+is+lost+(836t)+and+two+thirds+are+accumulated+in+the+soil+(2226t).+%0D%0A%0D%0AEstimates+of+future+atmospheric+cadmium+and+lead+deposition+are+low+compared+to+historic+depositions.+Cumulative+cadmium+deposition+during+1991+and+2010+is+only+10+to+40%25+of+the+cumulative+deposition+during+1970+and+1990.+The+average+lead+deposition+in+2010+is+only+10%25+of+the+average+deposition+in+the+70s+or+80s.+%0D%0A%0D%0ADue+to+declining+pH-value%2C+triggered+by+the+abandonment+of+agricultural+land+and%2For+a+conversion+into+forest+in+scenario+1%2C+major+releases+of+cadmium+are+expected.+Even+the+maximum+assumed+deposition+is+not+high+enough+to+compensate+cadmium+loss+due+to+declining+pH-value.+The+extent+of+decrease+depends+mainly+on+the+assumed+initial+concentration+in+1994+because+cumulative+future+atmospheric+deposition+is+very+low+compared+to+the+cadmium+already+stored+in+the+soils+at+present.+%0D%0A%0D%0AScenario+2+assumes+intensive+agricultural+production+until+2050.+Agricultural+activities+are+now+the+major+source+of+cadmium+load+to+the+soils.+In+most+cases+a+study+state+will+be+reached%2C+the+maximum+delta+increase+over+the+future+55+years+is+0.08mg%2Fkg.+%0D%0A%0D%0AIn+both+scenarios+lead+soil+concentrations+are+likely+to+decrease+slightly+in+the+future+due+to+losses+via+erosion%2C+which+exceed+atmospheric+deposition.&rft.publisher=WP-96-143&rft.date=1996-11&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4885%2F1%2FWP-96-143.pdf&rft.identifier=++Prieler%2C+S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F312.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-7024-1075+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-7024-1075%3E+%26+Anderberg%2C+S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1122.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7131-7353+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7131-7353%3E++(1996).++Assessment+of+Long+Term+Impacts+of+Cadmium+and+Lead+Load+to+Agricultural+Soils+in+the+Upper+Elbe+and+Oder+River+Basins.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-96-143+++++