?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4908%2F&rft.title=Integrated+Assessment+Models+and+the+Management+of+Uncertainties&rft.creator=Sluijs%2C+J.+van+der&rft.description=In+this+paper%2C+the+main+focus+is+on+the+IMAGE+model+(Integrated+Model+to+Assess+the+Greenhouse+Effect)%2C+which+served+as+a+case+study.+IMAGE+has+a+leading+role+in+process-oriented+integrated+modeling.+According+to+an+independent+evaluation+of+the+Dutch+NRP+(National+Research+Programme+on+Global+Air+Pollution+and+Climate+Change)%2C+%22IMAGE+is+an+outstanding+undertaking%2C+the+first+attempt+to+produce+a+comprehensive+integrated+assessment+framework+for+the+climate+change+problem+and+still+at+the+forefront+of+the+field+internationally%2C%22+and+%22IMAGE+has+established+a+niche+as+a+world+leader+in+integrated+systems+modeling.%22+(Science+and+Policy+Associates%2C+Inc.%2C+1995).+%0D%0A%0D%0AIn+the+following%2C+we+first+describe+the+rise+of+IAMs+%5BIntegrated+Assessment+Models%5D+in+the+mid-eighties+as+devices+to+interface+science+with+policy.+We+describe+what+IAMs+are%2C+in+the+detail+that+is+necessary+for+a+good+understanding+of+the+next+sections.+Then%2C+we+discuss+the+key+uncertainties+and+limitations+in+each+stage+of+the+causal+chain+of+the+climate+issue.+Next%2C+we+discuss+the+controversy+on+the+(policy)+usefulness+of+IAMs+for+the+climate+issue.+In+a+next+step%2C+we+analyze+the+mismatch+between+the+types+and+sources+of+uncertainty+that+should+be+addressed+on+the+one+hand+and+the+current+practice+of+uncertainty+management+in+IAMs+and+available+methodologies+to+address+different+types+and+sources+of+uncertainty+in+models+on+the+other+hand.+Furthermore%2C+we+look+at+the+reasons+for+the+mismatch+and+identify+areas+for+the+improvement+of+uncertainty+management.+In+the+final+section%2C+we+discuss+the+question+of+how+to+proceed+from+the+current+problems+in+uncertainty+management+and%2C+building+further+on+the+work+by+Funtowicz+and+Ravetz+(1990)%2C+we+propose+a+method+for+disentangling+the+uncertainty+problem+in+complex+Integrated+Assessment+Models.&rft.publisher=WP-96-119&rft.date=1996-10&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4908%2F1%2FWP-96-119.pdf&rft.identifier=++Sluijs%2C+J.+van+der++(1996).++Integrated+Assessment+Models+and+the+Management+of+Uncertainties.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-96-119+++++