?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4927%2F&rft.title=Challenges+for+Studying+Population-Environment+Interactions+in+the+Arab+Region&rft.creator=Lutz%2C+W.&rft.description=Since+the+Arab+region+largely+belongs+to+the+arid+climate+zone%2C+concerns+of+fresh+water+availability+in+the+context+of+population+changes+have+a+long+tradition+and+are+well+entrenched+in+the+Arab+culture.+In+the+future%2C+however%2C+this+region+is+likely+to+face+unprecedented+challenges+which+result+from+a+combination+of+continued+very+rapid+population+growth%2C+combined+with+the+prospect+of+significant+climate+warming.+This+paper+presents+alternative+population+scenarios+to+2100+which+are+based+on+different+fertility%2C+mortality+and+migration+assumptions+and+show+that+the+population+of+the+Arab+region+is+still+likely+to+increase+by+a+factor+of+more+than+four.+A+more+extreme+scenario+combining+slow+fertility+declines+with+rapid+mortality+improvements+may+even+result+in+an+eightfold+increase+by+the+end+of+the+next+century.+On+the+climate+side%2C+different+General+Circulation+Models+(GCMs)+anticipate+for+the+region+increases+in+average+temperature+of+between+3.0+and+4.5+degrees+Celsius+under+doubled+CO2+conditions+(likely+to+be+reached+during+the+second+half+of+the+next+century).+The+combination+of+these+two+trends+makes+population-environment+issues+in+the+region+a+vital+challenge.+%0D%0A%0D%0ABecause+appropriate+action+requires+appropriate+scientific+analysis+which+in+the+field+of+population-environment+interactions+is+almost+entirely+lacking%2C+the+second+part+of+the+paper+presents+the+outline+of+a+possible+research+strategy.+The+PDE+(Population-Development-Environment)+approach+that+has+already+been+applied+to+several+case+studies+is+proposed+as+a+comprehensive+strategy+to+encourage+an+interdisciplinary+discussion+and+a+science-policy+dialogue+around+the+building+of+a+computer-based+simulation+model+of+these+interactions%2C+which+has+proven+to+be+a+useful+facilitating+tool.&rft.publisher=WP-96-100&rft.date=1996-08&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4927%2F1%2FWP-96-100.pdf&rft.identifier=++Lutz%2C+W.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F190.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145%3E++(1996).++Challenges+for+Studying+Population-Environment+Interactions+in+the+Arab+Region.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-96-100+++++