?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4956%2F&rft.title=Climate+Change+and+Global+Agricultural+Potential+Project%3A+A+Case+of+Kenya&rft.creator=Fischer%2C+G.&rft.creator=van+Velthuizen%2C+H.T.&rft.description=Kenya+is+endowed+with+a+wide+range+of+agro-ecological+conditions%2C+varying+from+hot+arid+lowlands+to+cool+humid+highlands.+As+expected%2C+the+results+of+the+impact+analysis+of+climate+change+and+increases+of+atmospheric+carbon+dioxide%2C+therefore+show+a+wide+spectrum+of+impacts+on+land+resources+make-up+and+agricultural+production.+At+the+sub-national+level+results+of+impacts+on+agricultural+productivity+vary+substantially+both+in+terms+of+magnitude+and+direction.++%0D%0A%0D%0AAt+present%2C+agricultural+production+in+the+low+altitude+areas+in+Kenya+is+mainly+constrained+by+water+availability%2C+highland+areas+are+constrained+by+low+temperatures+and+locally+by+water+availability%2C+while+in+parts+of+central+and+western+Kenya+rainfall+in+excess+of+optimal+levels+occurs.+%0D%0A%0D%0ARising+temperatures%2C+without+corresponding+increases+in+precipitation+to+balance+the+increased+plant+water+requirements+due+to+higher+evapotranspiration+may+lead+to+dramatic+reductions+in+agricultural+production+potential%2C+especially+in+eastern+and+southern+Kenya%2C+i.e.%2C+in+parts+of+Eastern+province%2C+North-Eastern+province+and+Coast+province.+In+central+and+western+Kenya+temperature+increases+would+result+in+larger+extents+of+lands+with+cultivation+potential%2C+because+some+higher+altitude+areas+would+become+suitable+for+cropping.+This%2C+together+with+potentials+for+higher+cropping+intensities+in+these+highland+areas%2C+more+than+outweighs+effects+of+diminished+moisture+conditions%2C+even+in+scenarios+assuming+no+change+in+precipitation.+Under+such+conditions+in+the+presently+humid+areas+(%3E270+days+of+growing+period)%2C+diminished+wetness%2C+in+instances%2C+could+reduce+the+potential+impact+of+pest+and+disease+constraints.+%0D%0A%0D%0AResults+of+the+impact+assessment+suggest+that+the+national+level+food+productivity+potential+of+Kenya+may+well+increase+with+higher+levels+of+atmospheric+CO2+and+climate+change+induced+increases+in+temperature%2C+provided+this+is+accompanied+by+some+increase+in+precipitation+as+predicted+by+several+global+circulation+models.+If+no+balanced+increase+in+precipitation+were+to+take+place+then+the+impact+on+agricultural+productivity+in+the+semi-arid+parts+of+Kenya+could+be+devastating.+%0D%0A%0D%0AAlthough+land+productivity+in+Kenya+as+a+whole+appears+most+likely+positively+affected+by+climate+change%2C+impacts+vary+considerably+depending+on+location.+Negative+impacts+are+expected+to+occur+in+Coast+province+and+North-Eastern+province.+The+main+reasons+being%3A+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+Exceeding+optimal+temperature+ranges+for+photosynthesis+and+growth%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+Shortening+of+cereal+growth+cycles+and+periods+of+yield+formation%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+Increased+water+stress.+%0D%0A%0D%0AFor+Central+province%2C+Nairobi+area%2C+important+parts+of+Eastern+province%2C+Nyanza+province+and+Western+province+the+impacts+are+mostly+positive.+However%2C+some+negative+impacts+in+western+Kenya+may+occur+due+to+pest+and+disease+damage+and+worsening+of+workability+conditions+due+to+increased+wetness.+The+high-potential+agricultural+lands+in+central+and+western+Kenya+will+dominate+the+agricultural+production+potential+even+more+under+projected+climate+change+conditions.+The+main+reasons+of+positive+impacts+appear+to+be%3A+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+Temperature+increase+in+the+mid%2Fhigh+altitudes%2C+enlarging+the+area+with+crop+production+potential%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+Increased+cropping+intensity+potentials%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+CO2+fertilization.+%0D%0A%0D%0AIn+Rift+Valley+province%2C+comprising+of+a+wide+range+of+thermal+and+moisture+conditions%2C+impacts+are+mixed.+Negative+impacts+are%2C+for+instance%2C+expected+in+Laikipia+and+Narok+while+positive+impacts+are+anticipated+in+Nakuru+and+West+Pokot.+%0D%0A%0D%0ADespite+of+overall+positive+effects+for+Kenya+as+a+whole%2C+impacts+of+climate+change+on+land+productivity+may+intensify+regional+disparities.+Therefore%2C+preparedness+is+critical+in+order+to%3A+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+take+advantage+of+potential+blessings+of+climate+change+and+increased+atmospheric+CO2+concentrations%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+mitigate+likely+negative+impacts+in+low-lying+and+semi-arid+areas%3B+%0D%0A%0D%0A--+cope+with+the+socio-economic+consequences+of+changing+patterns+of+land+productivity.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThese+observations+are+consistent+with+short+and+medium+term+considerations+for+sustainable+development%2C+emphasizing+the+critical+need+for+careful+planning+and+protection+of+high+potential+areas.&rft.publisher=WP-96-071&rft.date=1996-09&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4956%2F1%2FWP-96-071.pdf&rft.identifier=++Fischer%2C+G.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F89.html%3E+%26+van+Velthuizen%2C+H.T.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F349.html%3E++(1996).++Climate+Change+and+Global+Agricultural+Potential+Project%3A+A+Case+of+Kenya.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-96-071+++++