?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4986%2F&rft.title=Land+Use+Change+in+Europe-+Scenarios+for+a+Project+Area+in+East+Germany%2C+Poland+and+the+Czech+Republic&rft.creator=Prieler%2C+S.&rft.creator=Hamann%2C+B.&rft.creator=Anderberg%2C+S.&rft.creator=Stigliani%2C+W.M.&rft.description=This+study+identifies+plausible+scenarios+for+land+use+changes+for+a+project+area+located+at+the+coexistent+borders+of+Poland%2C+the+Czech+Republic+and+East+Germany.+The+time+frame+is+1992+to+2050+with+an+intermediate+step+in+2020.+The+basis+for+the+scenarios+is+an+analysis+of+the+driving+forces+for+land+use+change+in+the+context+of+the+study+area.+The+main+emphasis+here+is+on+the+EU's+Common+Agricultural+Policy+and+trends+in+agriculture+and+forestry+in+the+three+countries+of+the+project+area.+In+addition+former+land+use+change%2C+spread+of+urban+areas%2C+the+state+of+mining+areas%2C+recreation+and+nature+conservation+and+policies+related+to+land+use+planning+are+of+importance+and+therefore+analyzed+for+each+country.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+direction+of+land+use+change+between+1960+and+present+was+a+decrease+in+agricultural+land+and+an+increase+in+forest+and+'other'+area%2C+which+mainly+consists+of+urban+area+and+area+for+infrastructure.+Recent+changes+in+the+Common+Agricultural+Policy+aim+at+reducing+overproduction+an+cut+spending+in+general.+The+prevailing+tendency+is+to+liberalize+the+agricultural+sector+to+shift+from+product+tied+payments+to+direct+payments+to+farmers+for+social%2C+environmental+or+cultural+duties.+Since+the+political+changes+in+1989+the+three+countries+of+the+project+area+have+undergone+significant+economic+and+structural+changes.+East+Germany+as+part+of+Unified+Germany+and+part+of+the+EU+has+experienced+the+most+drastic+restructuring+of+the+agricultural+sector+with+the+main+feature+of+major+job+losses+and+production+decreases%2C+especially+in+the+livestock+sector.+Similar+developments%2C+though+not+as+radical%2C+can+be+observed+in+Poland+and+the+Czech+Republic.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+first+Scenario%2C+%22Large+Scale+Increase+of+Wooded+Area%22%2C+anticipates+the+introduction+of+a+free+market+economy+to+the+agricultural+sector.+No+more+subsidies+are+required+for+agriculture.+Large+areas+of+marginal+farmland+have+to+be+taken+out+of+production.+The+price+of+land+decreases.++Farmers+will+either+afforest+their+farmland+or+sell+it+to+non-agricultural+uses+like+urban+development%2C+recreation+or+nature+conservation+are+options+for+farmers.+A+quantification+for+the+project+area+foresees+by+2050+a+decrease+of+agricultural+land+to+half+of+its+size+in+1992%2C+a+doubling+of+forest+and+an+increase+of+'other'+area+by+80%25.+%0D%0A%0D%0AScenario+2%2C+%22Alternative+Agricultural+Products%22%2C+assumes+a+shift+from+food+production+to+nonfood+products%2C+mainly+biofuel+and+incentives+for+an+extensification+of+agricultural+production.++Subsidies%2C+that+are+still+required+for+the+agricultural+sector%2C+will+be+kept.+The+overall+policy+aims+at+keeping+the+land+open%2C+avoiding+uncontrolled+spreading+of+urban+development+and+providing+prospect+for+development+and+employment+in+rural+areas.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+main+characteristic+of+Scenario+3%2C+%22Europe+as+Food+Exporter%22%2C+is+an+increase+in+the+demand+for+agricultural+products%2C+which+by+approximately+2010+triggers+a+increase+in+the+world+market+price+for+food+products.+Reasons+for+this+are+population+and+wealth+increase%2C+especially+in+China+an+south+east+Asia%2C+combined+with+environmental+constraints+like+water+or+fertile+land+scarcity+and+erosion.+As+a+result+agricultural+production+in+Europe+becomes+prosperous+in+the+frame+of+a+free+market+environment.+No+further+subsidies+are+required+for+the+sector.+Until+2010+the+development+is+similar+to+Scenario+2.+Scenario+2+and+3+show+only+modest+changes+in+land+use+patterns%2C+but+the+agricultural+production+structure+differs.+Scenario+2+focuses+on+a+mixture+of+food+and+non-food+products%2C+while+in+Scenario+3+all+available+farmland+is+used+for+food+production+after+2010.&rft.publisher=WP-96-040&rft.date=1996-04&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F4986%2F1%2FWP-96-040.pdf&rft.identifier=++Prieler%2C+S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F312.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-7024-1075+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-7024-1075%3E%2C+Hamann%2C+B.%2C+Anderberg%2C+S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1122.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7131-7353+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7131-7353%3E%2C+%26+Stigliani%2C+W.M.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1593.html%3E++(1996).++Land+Use+Change+in+Europe-+Scenarios+for+a+Project+Area+in+East+Germany%2C+Poland+and+the+Czech+Republic.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-96-040+++++