?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F5008%2F&rft.title=Probabilistic+World+Population+Projections+Based+on+Expert+Opinion&rft.creator=Lutz%2C+W.&rft.creator=Sanderson%2C+W.C.&rft.creator=Scherbov%2C+S.&rft.description=This+paper+presents%2C+to+our+knowledge%2C+the+first+probabilistic+projections+of+the+world+population.+These+projections+were+carried+out+as+part+of+the+updated+1996+revision+(forthcoming+in+May-June+1996)+of+%22The+Future+Population+of+the+World.+What+Can+We+Assume+Today%3F%22+(W.+Lutz%2C+ed.%2C+1994).+Projections+are+performed+at+the+level+of+13+regions+to+the+year+2100.+The+approach+is+based+on+expert+judgement+about+the+trend+and+uncertainty+of+future+fertility%2C+mortality+and+migration+in+all+the+regions.+For+each+of+the+components+a+group+of+experts+defined+three+alternative+future+paths%3A+low%2C+central%2C+and+high.+A+standard+normal+distribution+is+fitted+to+these+assumptions+with+the+central+assumption+giving+the+most+likely+case+(mean)%2C+and+the+low+and+high+assumptions+giving+the+range+of+90%25+of+all+possible+cases.+Drawing+randomly+from+these+distributions%2C+4000+simulations+produced+uncertainty+distributions+for+future+population+size+arid+age+structure.+The+simulations+presented+consider+both+the+cases+of+independence%2Fdependence+between+regions+(whether+regions+follow+the+same+above+or+below+average+trend)+and+between+fertility+and+mortality+trends.+One+of+the+many+results+is+that+we+are+able+to+say+now+that+there+is+roughly+a+two-thirds+probability+that+the+world+population+will+not+double+any+more+in+the+future.+The+95+percent+confidence+intervals+for+total+world+population+in+2020+are+7.5-8.3+billion+(median%3A+7.9)%3B+in+2050%2C+8.1-12.0+billion+(median%3A+10.0)%3B+and+in+2100%2C+5.7-17.3+billion+(median%3A+10.7).&rft.publisher=WP-96-017&rft.date=1996-02&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F5008%2F1%2FWP-96-017.pdf&rft.identifier=++Lutz%2C+W.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F190.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0001-7975-8145%3E%2C+Sanderson%2C+W.C.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F265.html%3E%2C+%26+Scherbov%2C+S.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F270.html%3E+ORCID%3A+https%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-0881-1073+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Forcid.org%2F0000-0002-0881-1073%3E++(1996).++Probabilistic+World+Population+Projections+Based+on+Expert+Opinion.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-96-017+++++