?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.relation=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F5015%2F&rft.title=Simulating+the+Socio-Economic+and+Biogeophysical+Driving+Forces+of+Land-Use+and+Land-Cover+Change%3A+The+IIASA+Land-Use+Change+Model&rft.creator=Fischer%2C+G.&rft.creator=Ermoliev%2C+Y.M.&rft.creator=Keyzer%2C+M.A.&rft.creator=Rosenzweig%2C+C.&rft.description=In+1995%2C+a+new+project+Modeling+Land-Use+and+Land-Cover+Changes+in+Europe+and+Northern+Asia+(LUC)+was+established+at+IIASA+with+the+objective+of+analyzing+the+spatial+characteristics%2C+temporal+dynamics%2C+and+environmental+consequences+of+land-use+and+land-cover+changes+that+have+occurred+in+Europe+and+Northern+Asia+over+the+period+1900+to+1990+as+a+result+of+a+range+of+socio-economic+and+biogeophysical+driving+forces.+The+analysis+will+then+be+used+to+project+plausible+future+changes+in+land+use+and+land+cover+for+the+period+1990+to+2050+under+different+assumptions+of+future+demographic%2C+economic%2C+technological%2C+social+and+political+development.+The+study+region%2C+Europe+and+Northern+Asia%2C+has+been+selected+because+of+its+diversity+in+social%2C+economic+and+political+organization%2C+the+rapid+changes+in+recent+history%2C+and+the+significant+implications+for+current+and+future+land-use+and+land-cover+change.+%0D%0A%0D%0ALand-cover+change+is+driven+by+a+multitude+of+processes.+Natural+processes%2C+such+as+vegetation+dynamics%2C+involve+alterations+in+cover+due+to+natural+changes+in+climate+and+soils.+However%2C+changes+of+land+cover+driven+by+anthropogenic+forcing+are+currently+the+most+important+and+most+rapid+of+all+changes+(Turner+et+al.+1990).+Therefore%2C+any+sound+effort+to+project+the+future+state+of+land+cover+must+consider+the+determinants+of+human+requirements+and+activities%2C+e.g.%2C+demand+for+land-based+products+such+as+food%2C+fiber+and+fuel%2C+or+use+of+land+for+recreation.+%0D%0A%0D%0AIn+the+past%2C+major+land-cover+conversions+have+occurred+as+a+consequence+of+deforestation+to+convert+land+for+crop+and+livestock+production%3B+removal+of+wood+for+fuel+and+timber%3B+conversion+of+wetlands+to+agricultural+and+other+uses%3B+conversion+of+land+for+habitation%2C+infrastructure+and+industry%3B+and+conversion+of+land+for+mineral+extraction+(Turner+et+al.+1993).+These+human-induced+conversions+of+land+cover%2C+particularly+during+the+past+two+centuries%2C+have+resulted+in+a+net+release+of+CO2+to+the+atmosphere%2C+changes+in+the+characteristics+of+land+surfaces+(e.g.%2C+albedo+and+roughness)%2C+and+decreased+biodiversity.+%0D%0A%0D%0AMore+subtle+processes%2C+termed+land-cover+modifications%2C+affect+the+character+of+the+land+cover+without+changing+its+overall+classification.+For+instance%2C+land-cover+degradation+through+erosion%2C+overgrazing%2C+desertification%2C+salinization+and+acidification%2C+is+currently+considered+a+major+environmental+problem.+Although+the+effects+of+land-cover+modifications+may+be+small+at+local+scales%2C+their+aggregate+impact+may+be+considerable.+For+example%2C+use+of+fertilizers+locally+has+no+significance+for+atmospheric+concentrations+of+greenhouse+gases.+However%2C+when+practiced+frequently+in+many+locations%2C+nitrogen+fertilizer+can+make+a+significant+contribution+to+emissions+of+nitrous+oxide+(N2O)+globally.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+implementation+of+a+comprehensive+land-use+change+model+poses+a+number+of+methodological+challenges.+These+include+the+complexity+of+the+issues+involved+and+the+large+number+of+interacting+agents+and+factors%3B+the+nonlinear+interactions+between+prices%2C+the+supply+of+and+the+demand+for+land-based+commodities+and+resources%3B+the+importance+of+intertemporal+aspects%3B+the+intricacy+of+biogeophysical+feedbacks%3B+and+the+essential+role+of+uncertainty+in+the+overall+evaluation+of+strategies.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+interaction+mechanisms+between+biophysical+cycles+and+economic+processes+have+mainly+been+studied+in+dynamic+simulation+models+that+follow+recursive+chains+of+causation%2C+where+the+past+and+present+events+determine+what+will+happen+tomorrow.+Not+surprisingly%2C+many+of+these+studies+have+led+to+dramatic+predictions%2C+basically+because+the+agents+whose+behavior+is+described+within+the+model+are+themselves+assumed+to+be+unable+to+predict+at+all.+By+contrast%2C+in+micro-economics+it+is+usually+assumed+that+agents+do+have+the+capacity+to+make+informed+predictions+and+to+plan+so+as+to+avoid+the+probability+of+disaster+in+the+future.+However%2C+even+full+information+and+rationality+of+individual+choice+are+not+always+sufficient+to+avoid+disaster.+The+coordination+mechanisms+that+prevail+among+economic+agents+often+tend+to+be+of+decisive+importance.+%0D%0A%0D%0AThe+aim+of+this+paper+is+to+summarize+the+LUC+project+approach+and+to+extend+our+earlier+writings+on+modeling+of+land-use+and+land-cover+change+dynamics.+We+discuss+the+adequacy+and+applicability+of+welfare+analysis+as+a+conceptual+framework+for+the+LUC+project+at+IIASA.+We+recognize+from+the+outset+the+complexity+of+socio-economic+and+environmental+driving+forces+and+the+fundamental+uncertainties+involved+in+their+spatial+and+temporal+interactions+(and+outcomes).+Unlike+physical+particles%2C+economic+agents+have+the+ability+to+anticipate%2C+and+they+possess+the+freedom+to+change+their+behavior.+This+inherent+unpredictability%2C+in+particular+the+multiplicity+of+possible+outcomes%2C+calls+for+a+normative+approach%2C+and+for+comparative+policy+analysis+rather+than+exact+prediction.+Therefore%2C+we+adopt+an+approach+that+enables+the+explicit+representation+of+various+policy+measures%2C+thus+providing+a+means+to+search+for+%22better+futures%22%2C+i.e.%2C+for+trajectories+of+future+development+that+may+alleviate+environmental+stresses+while+improving+human+welfare.&rft.publisher=WP-96-010&rft.date=1996-01&rft.type=Monograph&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=text&rft.language=en&rft.identifier=https%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fid%2Feprint%2F5015%2F1%2FWP-96-010.pdf&rft.identifier=++Fischer%2C+G.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F89.html%3E%2C+Ermoliev%2C+Y.M.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F338.html%3E%2C+Keyzer%2C+M.A.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F2645.html%3E%2C+%26+Rosenzweig%2C+C.+%3Chttps%3A%2F%2Fpure.iiasa.ac.at%2Fview%2Fiiasa%2F1542.html%3E++(1996).++Simulating+the+Socio-Economic+and+Biogeophysical+Driving+Forces+of+Land-Use+and+Land-Cover+Change%3A+The+IIASA+Land-Use+Change+Model.+++IIASA+Working+Paper.+IIASA%2C+Laxenburg%2C+Austria%3A+WP-96-010+++++