Implications of population growth and urbanization on agricultural risks in China

Fischer, G., Winiwarter, W. ORCID:, Cao, G.-Y., Ermolieva, T., Hizsnyik, E., Klimont, Z. ORCID:, Wiberg, D., & Zheng, X.Y. (2012). Implications of population growth and urbanization on agricultural risks in China. Population and Environment 33 (2) 243-258. 10.1007/s11111-011-0134-4.

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Growing population, rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and changing consumption preferences stimulate intensification of livestock production and excessive fertilization of crops in China. We present an innovative approach that sheds light on options to prevent negative environmental consequences of food production. Trends indicate that agricultural production expansion will take place in "profitable" locations around densely populated areas, where there are generally insufficient natural resources to recycle production wastes. This will likely lead to increased environmental impacts and risks to human health, with the largest impacts in close proximity to population hotspots. We identify trends in Chinese agricultural production and devise and compare feasible mitigation scenarios. We present a spatial allocation procedure that facilitates management of agricultural production expansion, accounting for environmental and health constraints. This procedure, based on behavioral principles, uses a spatial risk preference structure induced by local conditions, including environment, production, and demand, with important research and policy implications.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Agriculture; China; Demography; Environment; Health; Intensification; Pollution; Population growth; Spatial planning of production expansion; Urbanization
Research Programs: Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR)
Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Water (WAT)
Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
Bibliographic Reference: Population and Environment; 33(2-3):243-258 (March 2012) (Published online 10 May 2011)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:46
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:22

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