TSAP-2012 Baseline: Health and environmental impacts

Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972, Borken-Kleefeld, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5465-8559, Cofala, J., Heyes, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5254-493X, Kiesewetter, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-9812, Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Rafaj, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-5617, Sander, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6507-0630, Schoepp, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5990-423X, Wagner, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3429-2374, & Winiwarter, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496 (2012). TSAP-2012 Baseline: Health and environmental impacts. [[TSAP Report #6]], Version 1.0 (Editor: M. Amann), DG-Environment of the European Commission, Belgium (November 2012)

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Abstract

This report examines the health and environmental impacts of the TSAP-2012 baseline emission scenarios that have been presented in the TSAP Report #1 to the Stakeholder Expert Group in June 2012. The baseline suggests for the next decades a steady decline of energy-related emissions from industry, households and transport while no significant changes are foreseen for NH3 from agricultural activities.

These emission trajectories will lead to significant improvements in air quality. For instance, loss of statistical life expectancy from exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is expected to decline from 9.6 months in 2000 and 6.9 months in 2010 to 5.5 months in 2020 and 5.0 months in 2030. It is estimated that the number of premature deaths attributable to short-term exposure of ground-level ozone will drop by about 30% by 2020. Ecosystems area where biodiversity is threatened by excess nitrogen deposition will shrink from 1.2 million km2 in 2000 to 900,000 km2 in 2030, and acidification will remain an issue at only four percent of the European forest area.

However, by 2020 the baseline improvements for fine particular matter health impacts and eutrophication will fall short of the targets established in the 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, while for acidification and ozone these targets will be met. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the baseline development will achieve full compliance with the air quality limit values for PM10 and NO2 throughout Europe. Equally, the baseline scenario will not provide protection against excess nitrogen deposition at almost 50% of the legally protected Natura2000 areas and other protected zones.

In addition, the magnitude of air pollution impacts and resulting damage remains substantial. It is estimated that for the baseline in 2030, the European population would still suffer a loss of 210 million life-years and experience 18,000 premature deaths because of ozone exposure. Biodiversity will remain threatened by excess nitrogen input at 900,000 km2 of ecosystems, including 250,000 km2 which are legally protected, inter alia as Natura2000 areas.

The analysis also highlights the scope for additional measures that could alleviate the remaining damage and move closer to the objectives of the Sixth Environment Action Program. Full application of readily available technical emission reduction measures in the EU could reduce health impacts from PM by 2020 by another 30% and thereby gain more than 55 million life-years in the EU. It could save another 3,000 premature deaths per year because of lower ozone concentrations. Further controls of agricultural emissions could protect biodiversity at another 200,000 km2 of ecosystems against excess nitrogen deposition, including 50,000 km2 of Natura2000 areas and other protected zones. It could eliminate almost all likely exceedances of PM10 air quality limit values in the old Member States, while in the urban areas of new Member States additional action to substitute solid fuels in the household sector with cleaner forms of energy would be required. Such Europe-wide emission controls would also eliminate in 2030 all likely cases of noncompliance with EU air quality standards for NO2 with the exception of a few stations for which additional local measures (e.g., traffic restrictions, low emission zones) would be necessary.

While the general trend appears to be robust, quantification of the remaining effects requires more uncertainty analyses.

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