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Rafaj, P. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-5617, Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972, Cofala, J., & Sander, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6507-0630
(2012).
Factors determining recent changes of emissions of air pollutants in Europe.
[[TSAP Report #2]], Version 1.0, DG-Environment of the European Commission, Belgium (June 2012)
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Abstract
To support the European Commission in the review of the 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, this report revisits the baseline scenario that was presented in 2005 in view of today's knowledge, in particular taking into account the impacts of the economic crisis on economic and energy development, and real-life experience with newly implemented emission regulations.
It compares the final baseline emission projection developed in 2005 within the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme for the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution against the recent baseline projection prepared for the revision of the Thematic Strategy in 2012 (the TSAP-2012 baseline).
The report reviews the assumptions on main drivers of emission changes, i.e., demographic trends, economic growth, changes in the energy intensity of GDP, switches to other fuels, and application of dedicated emission control measures. For most of these drivers, reality has developed rather different compared to what has been assumed in 2005.
In reality, SO2 emissions in the old Member States in 2010 were 5% lower than what was projected by CAFE. NH3 was 10% and VOC 3% lower. NOx exceeded the CAFE projection by 7%, and PM2.5 by 10%. Larger differences occurred for the new Member States, where SO2 was 30% and NH3 16% below the levels suggest by CAFE. NOx was 11% higher, and PM2.5 and VOC 21% higher than estimated earlier.
For 2020, the TSAP-2012 baseline projection expects for the EU-27 about 20% less SO2 emissions than the earlier CAFE baseline, with application of dedicated emission controls as the dominating factor for lower emissions. NOx would be 5-7% lower, depending on the assumptions on the effectiveness of the new vehicle emission standards. The PM projection is about 10% higher, while smaller differences emerge for VOC and NH3.
Many of these changes are smaller than differences in the actual drivers. In many cases, higher effectiveness of dedicated emission controls compensated the lower than expected decline in total energy consumption as well as the delay in the phase-out of coal.
A re-analysis of air pollution control costs based on the actual statistics suggests for 2010 6% higher costs earlier estimated, mainly due to higher consumption of coal that required more emission control efforts.
For 2020, emissions of the new TSAP-2012 baseline (without additional measures) are substantially higher than the indicative targets for emission reductions established by the Thematic Strategy in 2005. As a consequence, the environmental targets established by the TSAP for the protection of human health, eutrophication and forest acidification would not be met by the TSAP-2012 baseline without additional measures.
| Item Type: | Other |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG) Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR) |
| Bibliographic Reference: | [[TSAP Report #2]], Version 1.0, DG-Environment of the European Commission, Belgium (June 2012) |
| Depositing User: | IIASA Import |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jan 2016 08:47 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Aug 2021 17:22 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10163 |
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