Impact of NOx vehicle emission standards failure on Air Quality in Europe

Borken-Kleefeld, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5465-8559, Kiesewetter, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-9812, Papageorgiou, T., & Ntziachristos, L. (2012). Impact of NOx vehicle emission standards failure on Air Quality in Europe. In: 19th International Transport and Air Pollution Conference 2012 (TAP2012), 26-27 November 2012.

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Abstract

Vehicle exhaust emission standards have been tightened in the EU for several decades now, in order to protect health and the environment. This has led to a substantial decrease in total pollutant emissions, despite the growing volumes of passenger and freight transport. However, national emissions, particularly of NOx, exceed the ceilings accorded under the Gothenburg Protocol of the UNECE's Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) (EEA 2012) in twelve EU Member States. The main reasons for such exceedances are that more diesel cars have been sold than originally predicted when fixing the targets, and that diesel cars emit much more than expected under real-world driving conditions. The latter appears as a consequence of the effort to achieve high fuel efficiency. While this has largely helped to control CO2 emissions, it was to the detriment of NOx.

In this study we estimate what the impact of the different vehicle emission standards has been so far and to predict what the impact of upcoming emission standards will be in the future, using the best current knowledge on road transport activity statistics and emission factors in Europe. We present several sensitivity calculations to reflect the considerable uncertainty about the real-driving NOx emissions of diesel light duty vehicles. The results of this work can be useful in designing both limits for upcoming standards but also in assessing the impact of deviating from such limits. This is necessary in both deciding on the next steps of emission control policy and to relevant air quality prediction models.

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