Forecasting Mortality Convergence Up to 2100

Garbero, A. & Sanderson, W.C. (2012). Forecasting Mortality Convergence Up to 2100. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-12-013

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Abstract

This paper presents life expectancy forecasts for all countries in the world explicitly assuming mortality convergence. We develop a model that takes into account country-specific heterogeneity in life expectancy historical trajectories, between-countries heterogeneity across gains and uncertainty through experts' based arguments (Lutz et al. 2001). The relevant literature has focused on forecasting mortality for a single population. Exception to this rule is the work by Li and Lee (2005) where the authors develop mortality forecasts that take into account patterns in a larger group using the Lee-Carter model.

Torri and Vaupel (2012) argue that life expectancy in different countries tends to be positively correlated and forecast life expectancies in individual countries by forecasting the best-practice level and the gap between the national performance and the best-practice level. We build upon their work by varying the speed of convergence, taking into account differential rates of linear increase in life expectancy across group of countries.

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