Historical Diffusion of Mobile Phones and Its Impact on Energy Demand: Findings and Outlook

Bento, N. (2012). Historical Diffusion of Mobile Phones and Its Impact on Energy Demand: Findings and Outlook. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-12-007

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Abstract

Few technologies in history have diffused as intensively and fast as mobile phones, changing the way people interact in society in a matter of years. Rapid spatial diffusion has been another feature of the growth, improving communication in low income countries and raising the life standards of the poor. While demand already shows signs of saturation in developed countries, the potential for growth remains important in other countries. Impacts on energy consumption are assessed by combining the inputs from a real field measurement with an estimated demand from a logistic model. Even though the energy consumed in phone charging is not very significant (6-8 TWh), this demand can be substantially higher when the infrastructure needs and the large capacity of new smartphones are included. Finally, it is shown that the capacity produced of cellular phones reached a level that is comparable to the scale of diffusion of supply energy technologies with similar rates of diffusion

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