Electrical Transition in Transport: Extent, Causes and Prospects for Diffusion of Electric Bicycles in China

Bento, N. (2012). Electrical Transition in Transport: Extent, Causes and Prospects for Diffusion of Electric Bicycles in China. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-12-006

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Abstract

What is the extent of diffusion of electric bicycles in China and the prospects for the future? What were the causes for that growth and the environmental impacts? Recently, electric bicycles have been an enormously successful in China, selling dozens of million units per year after a couple of year. Its installed capacity is so important that is consistent with the historical scaling dynamics observed in energy-supply technologies. Cost reductions and technology improvement, as well as income increase and air pollution in the cities helped to boost demand for those bicycles. The logistic model is used to understand the dynamics of diffusion. It was found that e-bicycles still have potential for diffusion in China and elsewhere, although the saturation level remains uncertain. At the regional level -bikes could replace bicycles in the market. However, the increase of emissions in electricity generation especially when the majority of it comes from coal mitigates the benefits of e-bikes in terms of cheap and efficient mobility. Finally, the rapid diffusion of such a small, simple and affordable technology gives an important lesson for the diffusion of low-carbon innovations in the future.

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