Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies

Rafaj, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-5617, Schoepp, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5990-423X, Russ, P., Heyes, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5254-493X, & Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972 (2013). Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18 (6) 801-824. 10.1007/s11027-012-9390-6.

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Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long-term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 20-degree Celsius climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control regulation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion Euros when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion Euros is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution are legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50%. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Abatement costs; Air pollution; Climate policies; Co-benefits; Ecosystems; Health impacts
Research Programs:	Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR) Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
Bibliographic Reference:	Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change; 18(6):801-824 (August 2013) (Published online 24 May 2012)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 08:48
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:23
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10378

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