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Malleson, N., Heppenstall, A.J., See, L. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2665-7065, & Evans, A.
(2013).
Using an agent-based crime simulation to predict the effects of urban regeneration on individual household burglary risk.
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 40 (3) 405-426. 10.1068/b38057.
Abstract
Making realistic predictions about the occurrence of crime is a challenging research area. City-wide crime patterns depend on the behaviour and interactions of a huge number of people (including victims, offenders, and passers-by) as well as a multitude of environmental factors. Modern criminology theory has highlighted the individual-level nature of crime-whereby overall crime rates emerge from individual crimes that are committed by individual people in individual places-but traditional modelling methodologies struggle to capture the complex dynamics of the system. The decision whether or not to commit a burglary, for example, is based on a persons unique behavioural circumstances and the immediate surrounding environment. To address these problems, individual-level simulation techniques such as agent-based modelling have begun to spread to the field of criminology. These models simulate the behaviour of individual people and objects directly; virtual "agents" are placed in an environment that allows them to travel through space and time, behaving as they would do in the real world. We outline an advanced agent-based model that can be used to simulate occurrences of residential burglary at an individual level. The behaviour within the model closely represents criminology theory and uses real-world data from the city of Leeds, UK as an input. We demonstrate the use of the model to predict the effects of a real urban regeneration scheme on local households.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Crime simulation; Burglary; Agent-based modelling; Offender behaviour |
| Research Programs: | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| Bibliographic Reference: | Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design; 40(3):405-426 (2013) |
| Depositing User: | IIASA Import |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jan 2016 08:48 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Aug 2021 17:23 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10423 |
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