Population of the World and its Regions 1975-2050

Keyfitz, N. (1979). Population of the World and its Regions 1975-2050. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-79-119

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Abstract

Low and high estimates are calculated for three categories of less developed countries (LDCs). The low figure for the year 2050 is 5,099.5, the high one is 7,184.5, all in millions. Adding the 1,400 millions for the developed countries (on which all estimates agree closely) gives a range of 6,500 to 8,600 millions for the world population in the year 2050; the ultimate world population on this scheme would be very little higher. The low of 6,500 is based on mortality continuing to fall and replacement (two children per couple surviving to maturity) being reached by 1995; the high estimate assumes this condition will be reached by 2015.

These numbers straddle the World Bank A figure, which is 8,136 million for the year 2050, and our high is slightly below the United Nations low figure. The result agrees with the implications of Lester R. Brown's (1976) paper. It represents a growing consensus that if birth rates have not dropped to replacement early in the 21st century, then death rates will rise substantially.

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