Summary of Data, Assumptions and Methods for New Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) Population Projections by Age, Sex and Level of Education for 195 Countries to 2100

K.C., S., Potančoková, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6115-5952, Bauer, R., Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, & Striessnig, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5419-9498 (2013). Summary of Data, Assumptions and Methods for New Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) Population Projections by Age, Sex and Level of Education for 195 Countries to 2100. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-13-018

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Abstract

This paper describes the base-line data and summarizes the methodology that underlies the projections presented for 195 countries of the world by age, sex, and educational attainment, based on detailed data on education for 171 countries. These multi-dimensional cohort-component projections require a large amount of empirical information, ranging from base-year data on populations disaggregated by levels of educational attainment by age and sex, to data on educational differentials of fertility and mortality. The paper also summarizes the procedures by which the assumed trajectories for future fertility, mortality and migration were derived by combining structured expert judgments with statistical models. It also describes in detail the procedures by which assumptions on aggregate fertility, mortality and migration trends were translated into education-specific trajectories in order to then calculate the implications of alternative education scenarios.

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