The Future Mortality of High Mortality Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments

Garbero, A., Pamuk, E., Garenne, M., Masquelier, B., & Pelletier, F. (2013). The Future Mortality of High Mortality Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-13-017

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Abstract

This paper examines the future of mortality in the 65 countries still experiencing high mortality in 2010, as defined by a cutoff of 40 deaths before age five per thousand live births. Mortality declines in several countries stagnated or reversed in the last two decades of the twentieth century due mainly to HIV/AIDS. The forces underlying past mortality trends and affecting the future course of mortality are examined by reviewing the existing literature and reporting the results of the global survey and invited meeting, both involving mortality experts. The experts assessed the likelihood and weight of forces hypothesized to influence mortality. A statistical model is combined with these expert assessments to produce a set of mortality assumptions that are incorporated into the projections reported in this paper. This paper also addresses the limited availability of reliable data on age-specific mortality rates.

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