Future Education Trends

Barakat, B. & Durham, R.E. (2013). Future Education Trends. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-13-014

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Abstract

In projecting educational expansion at different levels of schooling into the future for the worlds countries, this chapter weighs numerous theoretical perspectives against each other in terms of their predictive implications. The explanations for the global expansion of formal schooling since the mid-20th century derived from these different perspectives emphasize different social, political, and economic factors as well as different characterizations of the growth logic intrinsic to the education system itself. This analysis implies a projection model that assumes continued diffusion, with country-specific variation around a typical path of expansion from low shares of population attainment at a given level of schooling to its near universalization. Such a model is estimated on reconstructed attainment data and projected into the future to provide a baseline scenario. This is complemented by additional scenarios formalizing more rapid or stagnant educational growth.

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