The Future Fertility of High Fertility Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments

Goujon, A. ORCID: & Fuchs, R. (2013). The Future Fertility of High Fertility Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-13-013

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Project: Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195)


This paper presents and justifies a set of assumptions regarding the future of fertility in high-fertility countries based on an overview of fertility experiences in these countries, a review of factors influencing fertility change, a global survey of experts, and a final experts' meeting. Future fertility trends in high fertility countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will be the main determinants of global population growth over the rest of this century. Accordingly, this paper describes the diversity of experiences of the countries with currently high fertility, from those well advanced in the fertility transition to countries that have barely started. The expert survey emphasizes the importance of female education, urbanization and access to family planning in fertility declines. The literature review confirms these judgements. The paper ends with a technical description of the procedure for deriving the assumptions for projecting fertility in high fertility countries until 2100.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:50
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:23

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