Ageing dynamics of human-capital-specific population: A demographic perspective

Philipov, D., Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, & Di Giulio, P. (2014). Ageing dynamics of human-capital-specific population: A demographic perspective. Demographic Research 31 (44) 1311-1336. 10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.44.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Research on how rising human capital affects the consequences of population ageing rarely considers the fact that the human capital of the elderly population is composed in a specific way that is shaped by their earlier schooling and work experience. For an elderly population of a fixed size and age-sex composition, this entails that the higher its human capital, the greater the total amount of public pensions to be paid.

OBJECTIVE: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between human capital and retiree benefits and its effect on population ageing from a demographic viewpoint.

METHODS: We construct an old age dependency ratio (OADR), in which each person, whether in the numerator or the denominator, is assigned the number of units corresponding to his/her level of human capital. Based on data for Italy, we study the dynamics of this human-capital-specific OADR with the help of multistate population projections to 2107.

RESULTS: Our results show that under specific conditions a constant or moderately growing human capital may aggravate the consequences of population ageing rather than alleviate them.

CONCLUSIONS: With those findings, the authors would like to stimulate the debate on the search for demographic and/or socio-economic solutions to the challenges posed by population ageing.

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