A population policy rationale for the twenty-first century

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 (2014). A population policy rationale for the twenty-first century. Population and Development Review 40 (3) 527-544. 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00696.x.

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Project: Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195)


I propose that the primary goal of twenty-first-century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth-century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement-level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a "demographic dividend" from the changing age structure; and filling the "unmet need" for family planning. I demonstrate that in all three cases the explicit incorporation of education into the model changes the picture and makes female education a key population policy priority. Population policies under this new rationale could be viewed as public human resource management. I argue that 20 years after the Cairo ICPD the international community needs a new rationale for population policies in the context of sustainable development and that a focus on human capital development, in particular education and health, is the most promising approach.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: Population and Development Review; 40(3):527-544 (September 2014) (Published online 15 September 2014)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:50
Last Modified: 05 Aug 2023 05:00
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10850

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