Factorization of air pollutant emissions: Projections versus observed trends in Europe

Rafaj, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-5617, Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972, & Siri, J.G. (2014). Factorization of air pollutant emissions: Projections versus observed trends in Europe. Science of the Total Environment 494-95 272-282. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.013.

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This paper revisits the emission scenarios of the European Commission's 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) in light of today's knowledge. We review assumptions made in the past on the main drivers of emission changes, i.e., demographic trends, economic growth, changes in the energy intensity of GDP, fuel-switching, and application of dedicated emission control measures. Our analysis shows that for most of these drivers, actual trends have not matched initial expectations. Observed ammonia and sulfur emissions in European Union in 2010 were 10% to 20% lower than projected, while emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter exceeded estimates by 8% to 15%. In general, a higher efficiency of dedicated emission controls compensated for a lower-than-expected decline in total energy consumption as well as a delay in the phase-out of coal. For 2020, updated projections anticipate lower sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions than those under the 2005 baseline, whereby the degree to which these emissions are lower depends on what assumptions are made for emission controls and new vehicle standards. Projected levels of particulates are about 10% higher, while smaller differences emerge for other pollutants. New emission projections suggest that environmental targets established by the TSAP for the protection of human health, eutrophication and forest acidification will not be met without additional measures.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Air pollution; Driving factors; Reduction targets; Emission regulations
Research Programs: Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR)
Bibliographic Reference: Science of The Total Environment; 494-495:272-282 (1 October 2014) (Published online 21 July 2014)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:50
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:24
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10890

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