Entropy, Multiproportional, and Quadratic Techniques for Inferring Detailed Migration Patterns from Aggregate Data

Willekens, F., Por, A., & Raquillet, R. (1979). Entropy, Multiproportional, and Quadratic Techniques for Inferring Detailed Migration Patterns from Aggregate Data. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-79-088

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Abstract

This paper presents techniques for inferring migration flows by migrant category from some available aggregate data. The data are in the form of marginal totals of migration flow matrices or prior information on certain cell values. A generalized estimation procedure is presented which incorporates both maximum likelihood and x^2 estimates. The duality results of the optimizing problems rely on the decomposition principle of Rockafellar. We prove the convergence of the general iterative procedure of which the well-known RAS and entropy methods are special cases.

The validity of the methods is tested by comparison of estimates and observations for Austria and Sweden, using x^2 and absolute percentage deviation test statistics. The techniques are then applied to infer age-specific migration flows for Bulgaria. Algorithms and FORTRAN computer programs are also given.

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