Modeling impact of development trajectories and a global agreement on reducing emissions from deforestation on Congo Basin forests by 2030

Mosnier, A., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769, Aoki, K., Schmid, E., Fritz, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0420-8549, McCallum, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5812-9988, & Leduc, S. (2014). Modeling impact of development trajectories and a global agreement on reducing emissions from deforestation on Congo Basin forests by 2030. Environmental and Resource Economics 57 (4) 505-525. 10.1007/s10640-012-9618-7.

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Abstract

The Congo Basin encompasses the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon but the Congo Basin rainforest has been more preserved during the last decades with a much lower deforestation rate. At the same time, the region remains one of the least developed in the world. We use the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM for the global agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors that seeks to find optimal land use options by spatially representing land qualities. We show the trade-offs between achieving agricultural growth at the expense of forests and protecting forests at the expense of agriculture development in the Congo Basin. The realization of the transportation infrastructures, which are already planned and funded, could multiply deforestation by three. In contrast, a global agreement on reduction of total emissions from deforestation could achieve important cuts in GHG emissions from deforestation in the Congo Basin. However, it could lead to substantial increases in food imports and food prices, which are in contradiction with the food security objectives.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Congo Basin; Deforestation; Infrastructures; Land use change; Partial equilibrium model; REDD+
Research Programs:	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Bibliographic Reference:	Environmental and Resource Economics; 57(4):505-525 (April 2014) (Published online 20 December 2012)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 08:50
Last Modified:	19 Oct 2022 05:00
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10965

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