European decarbonisation pathways under alternative technological and policy choices: A multi-model analysis

Capros, P., Paroussos, L., Fragkos, P., Tsani, S., Boitier, B., Wagner, F. ORCID:, Busch, S., Resch, G., et al. (2014). European decarbonisation pathways under alternative technological and policy choices: A multi-model analysis. Energy Strategy Reviews 2 (3) 231-245. 10.1016/j.esr.2013.12.007.

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Project: Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139)


This paper explores in a systematic manner the required energy system transformations and the associated costs incurred for the EU in order to meet the decarbonisation targets as specified in the EU Roadmap 2050, i.e. the 80% GHG emissions reduction target and the equivalent carbon budget by 2050. Seven large-scale energy-economy models, namely PRIMES, TIMES-PanEu, GEM-E3, NEMESIS, WorldScan, Green-X and GAINS, which have been extensively used in EU climate and energy policy analysis are employed for the simulation and quantification of alternative EU decarbonisation pathways under technological limitations and climate policy delays. The multi-model perspective provides valuable insights for the formulation of robust policies. The model results show that the EU emissions reduction target is feasible with currently known technological options at low costs (lower than 1% of GDP in the period 2015-2050). Models confirm the EU Roadmap priorities for 2050 with regard to accelerated energy efficiency, transport electrification and supply-side restructuring with high RES, CCS and nuclear deployment. Decarbonisation targets are found feasible even in cases with technological limitations regarding CCS and nuclear technologies and delays in transport electrification albeit with higher costs. Delaying emission reduction action until 2030 has significant adverse effects on energy system costs and stresses the system capabilities for decarbonisation.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: EU decarbonisation pathways; Climate policy delays; Energy roadmap; EU energy policy; Technological limitations
Research Programs: Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR)
Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
Bibliographic Reference: Energy Strategy Reviews; 2(3-4):231-245 (February 2014) (Published online 24 January 2014)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:51
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:24

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