Sensitivity Analysis of Tech 1 - A Systems Dynamics Model for Technological Shift

Markowich, P. (1979). Sensitivity Analysis of Tech 1 - A Systems Dynamics Model for Technological Shift. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-79-078

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Abstract

This paper deals with the sensitivity analysis of TECH1 -- a system dynamics model, which describes the technological shift from an old technology to a new one, within a specific scenario. However, its goal is not to describe the model, which was done by Robinson (1979), in this case the paper's goal is threefold:

1. To show with mathematical tools which factors are important for an invention to become an innovation, by interpreting in an economic sense the results of the performed analysis.

2. To make it possible for a broader range of people to understand system dynamics models -- especially TECH1 and consequently to improve them.

3. To show what kind of mathematical analysis is useful for a class of economic models represented by differential equations.

Although TECH1 has not yet been applied to the real world, the author hopes that this paper will help to produce a better understanding of the innovation process in the real world, as well as of system dynamics models and their limits.

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