Formative Phase Lengths for a Sample of Energy Technologies Using a Diverse Set of Indicators

Bento, N. & Wilson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8164-3566 (2014). Formative Phase Lengths for a Sample of Energy Technologies Using a Diverse Set of Indicators. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-14-009

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Abstract

The objective of this research is to identify historical patterns in the formative phase of energy technologies. This period designates the early stage of development (i.e., between the invention and the up-scaling phase) that sets up the conditions for the technology to emerge and prepare for widespread growth. This investigation aims to develop an operational definition of formative phase to enable comparative technology analysis. A review of the literature, particularly the technological innovation system one, reveals a set of formative processes which are then connected to a common set of indicators for characterizing the development of new technologies. The results show that "2.5% market potential" is a good metric of the completion of the formative phase as early demand helps to reduce uncertainties (technology, market and institutions) and improve performances. This phase is often long, taking at least a decade in the more optimistic estimates. It can be shortened in the case of less disruptive innovations or by a simultaneous promotion of technology supply and demand.

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