Global food security & adaptation under crop yield volatility

Fuss, S., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Szolgayova, J., Schmid, E., Reuter, W.H., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769, Ermolieva, T., Ermoliev, Y., & Kraxner, F. (2015). Global food security & adaptation under crop yield volatility. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98 223-233. 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.03.019.

Abstract

Climate change projections raise concerns about future food security and needs for adaptation. While variety of studies quantify and analyze climate change impacts at the level of crop yields, it has been recognized that changes in yield variability may have even more important effects on food security. In addition, large-scale analysis is typically based on different scenarios rather than providing aid to determine decisions that are robust across these scenarios. We develop a stochastic version of a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model integrating the agricultural, bio-energy and forestry sectors in order to examine food security under crop yield variability. The results indicate that food security requires overproduction to meet minimum food supply constraints. This does not only lead to higher prices, but also to larger cropped areas associated with an increase in GHG emissions and pressure on biodiversity, as more natural areas are converted to agriculture. Trade liberalization and enhanced irrigation are both found to be promising adaptation channels for food supply stabilization.

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