DEMP-1: Some Counterfactual Simulation Results

Pawlowski, Z. (1979). DEMP-1: Some Counterfactual Simulation Results. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-79-039

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Abstract

This is the second IIASA Working Paper on DEMP-1 -- the Demoeconometric Model of Poland. This model seeks to examine the process of economic growth and its impact on the time-behavior of demographic variables, such as birth, death, and migration rates, and population totals in urban and rural areas. The paper presents the reduced form of the model and illustrates some of its uses: counterfactual simulation results and direct multiplier analysis. The counterfactual simulation was based on two scenarios, one extrapolating to the 1970's the moderate growth experienced in the 1960's and one assuming from the start (since 1960) a high rate of growth, as was observed in the period 1971-1976. The analysis of direct multipliers shows that trends and sharp shifts of economic policy, which occur from time to time because of changes in relevant economic and administrative decisions, play an especially large role in the impact of economics on demographic factors.

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