Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Lutz, W. ORCID: & Striessnig, E. ORCID: (2015). Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Population Studies 69 (S1) S69-S76. 10.1080/00324728.2014.969929.

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In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variabiliy of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by the regional climate model RACMO2. Observations at European rural bacground sites have been used as reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data stringent selection criteria were applied including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the day-to-day, seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulphur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both, the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990's while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000-2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulphate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are significantly lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured these non-linear responses to the emission changes well. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module trends in formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulphate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up t 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear response. However, we have also identified some weaknesses to the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxideconcentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990's used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: Population Studies: A Journal of Demography; 69(S1):S69-S76 (April 2015)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:53
Last Modified: 05 Aug 2023 05:01

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