A Three Country Comparison of the Impact of Slower Growth on Three Industries using Input-Output Analysis

Nyhus, D.E. (1979). A Three Country Comparison of the Impact of Slower Growth on Three Industries using Input-Output Analysis. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-79-021

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Abstract

Western Europe has, in the 1970's entered a period of reduced real growth. During the boom times of the 1960's, nearly all industries were growing at a rate allowing employment to remain, at worst, relatively constant. During this present decade, Western European industry first experienced a recession and is now in the process of a recovery in which output growth seems to be substantially below that of the 1960's. Some industries have made the change to the reduced growth rates with relative ease while others have encountered severe adjustment difficulties.

Were warning flags in evidence in the 1960's pointing to industries which would be particularly sensitive to a slowdown in overall real growth? If so, what were these flags? Where can we see them most clearly? Do they have any bearing on the outlook for Western Europe in 1985?

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