A forward looking age based on longevity expectations

Aktas, A. & Sanderson, W.C. (2015). A forward looking age based on longevity expectations. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-15-016

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Project: Reassessing Ageing from a Population Perspective (RE-AGEING, FP7 323947)


Many personal decisions are shaped by people's expectations of the future, but these expectations are rarely included in the study of those decisions. Often, studies that analyze these forward-looking decisions use chronological age, an inherently backward-looking measure, as a proxy for those expectations. In this paper, we use a two part methodology to compute a forward-looking age which is based on data of longevity expectations collected in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). In the first part, we propose a method to translate those expectations into life tables. In the second part, those life tables are used to produce forward-looking ages that can be used in the study of forward-looking decisions. We find that education has a great effect on subjective life expectancy, therefore on forward-looking age. Also, we observe that at any given education level, the forward-looking age of the younger cohort is always greater than or equal to the forward-looking age of the older cohort. Finally, the difference between forward-looking age chronological age is increasing as individuals get older, but the speed of this change varies depending on education level, cohort and health-related conditions.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:54
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:25
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11673

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