Understanding the Drivers of Urban Expansion: Case Study of Seville Province

Hewitt, R., Shchiptsova, A., & Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443 (2015). Understanding the Drivers of Urban Expansion: Case Study of Seville Province. In: Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa, 11 -13 November, 2015, Laxenburg, Austria.

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Abstract

Urban development has accelerated across the globe in recent decades. Much of this development has not been concentrated in cities, but has occurred as dispersed, low-density development outside of major centers but within their area of economic influence, along transport networks, in coastal areas, or close to areas of high natural value. This research focuses on the case study of the province of Seville, Spain, which has experienced notable urban expansion in recent years. We present a systems approach to model dependence between economic development and distribution of urban and non-urban land in this region from data collection to model validation. An extensive search of available indicators of socioeconomic development in this region has been carried out. We apply this data to create a generic statistical model of urban expansion, which links land-use patterns with population density and other indicators of economic growth. The model is tested across the whole Seville region and in its sub-regions to derive drivers of urban expansion in this territory.

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