A Watershed Development Approach to the Eutrophication Problem of Lake Balaton (A Multiregional and Multicriteria Model)

David, L., Telegdi, L., & Straten, G. van (1979). A Watershed Development Approach to the Eutrophication Problem of Lake Balaton (A Multiregional and Multicriteria Model). IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-79-016

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Abstract

The approach to long-term management of the eutrophication of a lake proposed in this paper is based on the hypothesis that a close relation exists between the human activity in the watershed and the degree of eutrophication in the adjacent waterbody. The method builds on the watershed development approach applied earlier to water resources planning.

To test the basic hypothesis and to investigate the relationship in quantitative form an application to the eutrophication problem of Lake Balaton has been attempted. For this purpose the Balaton catchment was separated into regional units with differing degrees of development. In view of the main water transport direction in Lake Balaton, the adjacent waterbodies can be considered as a hierarchical system. For this multiregional, hierarchical system a model was formulated in which the effects of the relevant watershed development factors and natural factors on the nutrient loading from the watershed are expressed in one condensed watershed development figure. Comparison of the development figure for various time instants and various regions with historical and spatial data for the degree of eutrophication should then allow the specification of the relation in a numerical form.

The actual application presented in this paper is of preliminary nature because data for the existing level of watershed development (1975-76) were available only. A system of 25 nutrient loading effecting watershed development criteria was designed on the basis of 50 development and natural factors selected from available statistical data. The 25 criteria were then composed into a development indicator for the four watershed regions using 7 alternative weighting systems. The results were compared with 3 alternative eutrophication indices derived from phytoplankton biomass data. The model relationship was analyzed by means of correlation analysis, and a tentative assessment was made of the sensitivity to weighting system and eutrophication index.

The first numerical results support the idea behind the basic hypothesis of the watershed development approach. The quantitative results agree with subjective opinions on the present situation in the Balaton region. The overall conclusion is that it is worthwhile to pursue the line of research of this report as a perspective tool in the simulation of the effects of long-term watershed development policies on the eutrophication of the lake. The collection of the necessary historical data for this purpose is highly recommended.

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