Accounting uncertainty for spatial modeling of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector: fuel combustion and heat production.

Danylo, O., Bun, R., See, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2665-7065, Topylko, P., Xu, X., Charkovska, N., & Tymków, P. (2015). Accounting uncertainty for spatial modeling of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector: fuel combustion and heat production. In: Proceedings, 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions, 7-9 October 2015, Krakow, Poland. pp. 193-200 Warsaw, Poland: Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences. ISBN 83-894-7557-X

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Abstract

Energy consumption in households has a great potential for energy savings as well as for greenhouse gas emission reduction. As national inventory reports provide estimates at only a country or regional level, we have developed a new GIS approach that increases the resolution of emission inventories. We consider stationary emission sources, such as fossil fuel combustion and heat production for household energy needs that cover energy demand for cooking, water and space heating. We estimate the spatial emissions of greenhouse gases based on IPCC guidelines using official statistics on fuel consumption and spatial data about population density. The heating degree-day method was then used to determine the climatic conditions and spatial variability in energy demand. The results of the spatial inventory are obtained for settlements that are presented as area-type emission sources in a geospatial database. The uncertainties in the inventory results are estimated using a Monte Carlo method. The results show that uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions at the regional level are significantly higher than at the country level although the uncertainty of emissions in CO2-equivalent does not exceed 17.0%.

Item Type:	Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords:	4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions
Research Programs:	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	10 Feb 2016 12:09
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:25
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11889

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