The Stochastic Aspects of Long-Term Water Resources Planning as Applied to the Integrated Regional Development Problem

Velikanov, A.L. (1979). The Stochastic Aspects of Long-Term Water Resources Planning as Applied to the Integrated Regional Development Problem. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-79-004

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Abstract

Water resources systems have been an important part of resources and environment related research at IIASA since its inception. As demands for water increase relative to supply, the intensity and efficiency of water resources management must be developed further. This in turn requires an increase in the degree of detail and sophistication of the analysis, including economic, social and environmental evaluation of water resources development alternatives aided by application of mathematical modeling techniques, to generate inputs for planning, design, and operational decisions.

During the year of 1978 it was decided that parallel to the continuation of demand studies, an attempt would be made to integrate the results of our studies on water demands with water supply considerations. This new task was named "Regional Water Management" (Task 1, Resources and Environment Area). It is concerned with the application of systems analysis techniques for planning and operational management of integrated regional water resources systems.

This paper by Dr. S. Velikanov from the Institute of Water Problems of the USSR Academy of Sciences was drafted during his short visit to IIASA in early 1978. It reviews some of the approaches developed in the USSR concerning estimation of reliability of water supply and water demands and the use of these reliability estimates in the water resources planning process.

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