World oil: A long-term look

Basile, P.S. & Papin, A. (1981). World oil: A long-term look. Energy 6 (6) 529-541. 10.1016/0360-5442(81)90057-8.

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Oil needs and prospective supplies for the world over the next fifty years have been assessed as part of the energy studies at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. These analyses indicate needs of from 100 to 160 × 106 BPD (barrels per day) of liquid fuels, even with optimistic assumptions on improvements in oil-using technologies and massive substitutions away from oil wherever possible.
Supplying these large quantities of oil poses enormous challenges to the world. Today, global oil output is currently ~ 60 × 106 BPD, with most traditional sources constrained either by physical factors or by resource-preserving government policies. In the next five decades, therefore, a global transition away from conventional and toward unconventional sources of liquids, on a major scale, seems inevitable. The unconventional sources could be oil shale or tar sands or synthetic liquids produced from coal. The resource base for each of these seems adequate. But the implications of adequate exploitation must be carefully assessed.
The approach used at IIASA for balancing liquid demands and supplies among seven regions of the world is described in this article. The relative resource and demand positions of different world regions, while open to some interpretation, seem to imply that the developed regions of the world can and should conserve liquid fuels so that the developing world will have access to the liquid fuels, that are ideally suited to economic development.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Depositing User: Romeo Molina
Date Deposited: 05 Apr 2016 12:39
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:26

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